why women vote...or not!
by sandi tomlin-sutker

You’ve probably seen the signs everywhere—Register to Vote!

Retail stores all over the area have forms to fill out; people like George Handy and his daughter drive around with a huge sign on their vehicle and park in coffee shop parking lots to hand out forms and encourage people to register—NOW. I think this is the most visible registration drive I’ve ever seen.

This presidential election (and in many areas Congressional and Senate elections) is one of the most contentious in years, on both sides of the party divide. But aside from simply exercising our right as citizens to make our voices heard, does it matter if the other 40-45% of eligible women (and an even higher percentage of men) don’t vote?

Studies show that women voted at higher rates than men did in every presidential election since 1984. Yes, the U.S. does still have the lowest rate of voter turnout in any industrialized democracy. But if women, and men for that matter, go to the polls in greater numbers will there be a specific effect on the outcome—or is voting sort of like taking a survey: a small sample still reflects the attitudes of the larger population?

Ah, but there’s the problem. The sample surveyed has to mimic the larger population in its makeup. And it appears that voting doesn’t take place at the same rate among different parts of the population and that different groups do have diverse opinions and needs. One example: in the 2000 presidential election, women who were divorced, widowed or never married comprised 42% of all women registered to vote (equal to all Jewish, African-American and Latina(o) voters combined); yet over 21 million of those single women didn’t cast their votes. If there are issues those women care about, or that affect them differently, then they were certainly not well represented in that election.

The sense that women had different concerns than men was a main impetus for the first push, in 1848, to give women the vote. Many of the early suffragists were Quakers or belonged to other reform groups (anti-slavery, temperance); they perceived that women would vote differently from men and they were correct: this difference is called the Gender Gap. Even though women have not voted as one monolithic group, women have, in recent decades, tended to vote Democrat. This is a reversal of the post-World War II trend where the majority of women voted Republican and men favored Democrats. Why the shift?

A new study by two economists at Columbia University concludes that this Gender Gap is really more a Marriage Gap. The authors argue that the decline in marriage (the unmarried portion of the population is about 44% and rising) tended to make women poorer and men richer. The Democrats are typically perceived as favoring disadvantaged groups, thus the increase in voting for them by women who are much more in need (along with their children) of safety nets. (It is interesting to note, though, that there is also a Marriage Gap for men: 56% of married men support Bush, 55% of single men support Kerry)

The more deeply I look into this, the happier I am not to be a political advisor! Complicating the analysis of the various "gaps" are issues of race, geographical location, age and religion. Bill Clinton’s two presidential victories resulted from women’s votes, but even more so from the votes of African-American women: In 1992 87% of them voted for Clinton—41% of white women did so. In 1996 the rates were 89% and 48%. That’s a huge Race Gap among women and I assume, although I saw no specific figures, this gap is there among male voters as well.

So, it appears that voters do perceive a difference between the two major parties in terms of policy direction. Then why so many women, especially single women, who don’t vote? A recent study commissioned by Lifetime cable TV and Rock the Vote found that nine out of 10 women thought issues such as healthcare, child care, equal pay, prevention of sexual assault and violence are critical to how they vote. But they also said neither candidate seemed to address these issues.

The poll found that women are more pessimistic now about the direction of the country and world. When undecided women between the ages of 18 and 32 were asked, over 80% specifically named healthcare and health insurance. Over two-thirds of them indicated they didn’t feel good about issues such as jobs, the overall economy, education, the environment and policy on the Iraq war.

The importance of these issues to women is actually similar to the importance to men. But women, if convinced a candidate addresses or shows leadership around the issues, will be more likely to vote for that candidate than men. The result is what’s termed "micro-targeting". Divorced women tend to vote Democrat, mainly because their standard of living declines after divorce. So a Republican initiative of tax credits for children might shift some of those women in to that party. On the other hand, a Republican policy of strengthening work requirements for welfare mothers might have the opposite effect.

Both parties are attempting to woo undecided women voters: at the moment I’m writing this it looks as if Bush has pulled more women into his camp (48% for Bush, 49% for Kerry compared to the stable Bush lead of 57% among men).

Republican pollster Leslie Sanchez says that three elements are critical to Bush’s popularity among women: he must build an emotional connection, humanize himself and convince them he can keep America safe. It would appear that Kerry must do some of those same things and especially address the issues that are important to undecided and registered but non-voting women. Since 1980 women have cast the deciding votes for president. If women make their voices heard about the issues that most affect women’s lives, the candidates must listen or fall to defeat. That’s the power of the Vote—it really does make a difference. Look at the sidebar on page 5 for all the incredible resources to keep you informed about the candidates and their stand on the issues that matter to you.

And go to page 29 to see the results of WNC Woman’s What Women Want survey on voting. Get the scoop on: What issues matter to our readers? Do women in WNC vote? And for which party?